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The deadly cyclone that ripped into Burma over the weekend could shake the stranglehold on power of the country's ruling generals—becoming a force for change more powerful than massive pro-democracy demonstrations and international sanctions.
Natural disasters by themselves are unlikely to trigger change, but instead tend to help undermine already corrupt or failing systems.
Few people think revolution is in the air in Burma—not while the victims are still burying their dead, now totaling 22,000 and climbing.
But by an unusual accident of timing, the cyclone ripped through the country on Saturday, just a week before the May 10 referendum on a proposed constitution that the military hoped would go smoothly in its favor, despite opposition from the country's feisty pro-democracy movement.
The vote now gives people a rare and relatively safe way to express their discontent with the country's junta.
The higher the death toll climbs—and the less effective the government's relief efforts prove—the bigger the potential for undermining the military's mandate to rule.
Already, in a society that is notably superstitious, the bad aura surrounding the tragedy has attached itself to the junta.
"The juxtaposition of the cyclone and the voting might cause many in Burma [Myanmar] to feel this is an indication that the military should not be in power," said David Steinberg, a Burma expert at Georgetown University, referring to the country by its old name.
He said traditional views in some parts of Asia consider rulers as responsible for natural conditions. If disaster struck, a government could be considered to have lost its "mandate of heaven."
The Burmese military has long ruled by fear, especially since 1988 when thousands were killed when the army quashed massive pro-democracy demonstrations.
The lesson was reinforced last year, when new pro-democracy protests led by Buddhist monks were suppressed by force, with at least 31 people killed and thousands arrested.
"I have been struck (by) ... how open many in Burma have been in contrasting the regime's rapid and in-force response to the events of last year, and their all-too-typical laggardly and underwhelming response to disasters such as this," said Sean Turnell, an economist specializing in Burma at Australia's Macquarie University.
"Responding to natural disasters is precisely the sort of thing 'real' armies do well elsewhere, but never in Burma," he said.
While the military and other government authorities kept a low profile Monday in Rangoon's storm-battered streets, civilians and Buddhist monks banded together, wielding axes and knives to clear roads of tree trunks and branches torn off by the cyclone’s 190 kph (120 mph) winds.
"Where are all those uniformed people who are always ready to beat civilians?" said one man, who refused to be identified for fear of retribution. "They should come out in full force and help clean up the areas and restore electricity."
Burmese people will likely remember who came out to help them in their time of need.
"If Buddhist monks have mobilized to provide assistance, as often happens in Asian countries, the contrast in response will further work to undermine whatever credibility the junta has left," said Ben Wisner, a disaster and urban affairs expert at Oberlin University.
The need for a massive relief effort poses a dilemma for the junta: how much assistance to accept from abroad.
Allowing any major influx of foreigners could carry risks for the military, injecting unwanted outside influence and giving the aid givers rather than the junta credit for a recovery.
However, keeping out international aid would focus blame squarely on the military should it fail to restore people’s livelihoods.
The most extreme change could come within the military itself.
The cyclone's aftermath, said Turnell, "may also just present an opportunity for more moderate, rational people in the military to assume greater control."
If the relief effort discredits the current leadership, said Josef Silverstein, a Burma expert formerly with Rutgers University, younger officers could take the opportunity to make a bid for power.
"With the devastating sudden impact of natural disasters, there tends to be a huge anger from the public for the inadequacies of the state to respond to the needs of disaster- affected people," said Dr. Alpaslan Ozerdem of the Post-war Reconstruction and Development Unit of the University of York.
"Consequently, the image of the state as a paternal figure—a heavy-handed protector—collapses spectacularly," he said.
The deadly cyclone that ripped into Burma over the weekend could shake the stranglehold on power of the country's ruling generals—becoming a force for change more powerful than massive pro-democracy demonstrations and international sanctions.
Natural disasters by themselves are unlikely to trigger change, but instead tend to help undermine already corrupt or failing systems.
Few people think revolution is in the air in Burma—not while the victims are still burying their dead, now totaling 22,000 and climbing.
But by an unusual accident of timing, the cyclone ripped through the country on Saturday, just a week before the May 10 referendum on a proposed constitution that the military hoped would go smoothly in its favor, despite opposition from the country's feisty pro-democracy movement.
The vote now gives people a rare and relatively safe way to express their discontent with the country's junta.
The higher the death toll climbs—and the less effective the government's relief efforts prove—the bigger the potential for undermining the military's mandate to rule.
Already, in a society that is notably superstitious, the bad aura surrounding the tragedy has attached itself to the junta.
"The juxtaposition of the cyclone and the voting might cause many in Burma [Myanmar] to feel this is an indication that the military should not be in power," said David Steinberg, a Burma expert at Georgetown University, referring to the country by its old name.
He said traditional views in some parts of Asia consider rulers as responsible for natural conditions. If disaster struck, a government could be considered to have lost its "mandate of heaven."
The Burmese military has long ruled by fear, especially since 1988 when thousands were killed when the army quashed massive pro-democracy demonstrations.
The lesson was reinforced last year, when new pro-democracy protests led by Buddhist monks were suppressed by force, with at least 31 people killed and thousands arrested.
"I have been struck (by) ... how open many in Burma have been in contrasting the regime's rapid and in-force response to the events of last year, and their all-too-typical laggardly and underwhelming response to disasters such as this," said Sean Turnell, an economist specializing in Burma at Australia's Macquarie University.
"Responding to natural disasters is precisely the sort of thing 'real' armies do well elsewhere, but never in Burma," he said.
While the military and other government authorities kept a low profile Monday in Rangoon's storm-battered streets, civilians and Buddhist monks banded together, wielding axes and knives to clear roads of tree trunks and branches torn off by the cyclone’s 190 kph (120 mph) winds.
"Where are all those uniformed people who are always ready to beat civilians?" said one man, who refused to be identified for fear of retribution. "They should come out in full force and help clean up the areas and restore electricity."
Burmese people will likely remember who came out to help them in their time of need.
"If Buddhist monks have mobilized to provide assistance, as often happens in Asian countries, the contrast in response will further work to undermine whatever credibility the junta has left," said Ben Wisner, a disaster and urban affairs expert at Oberlin University.
The need for a massive relief effort poses a dilemma for the junta: how much assistance to accept from abroad.
Allowing any major influx of foreigners could carry risks for the military, injecting unwanted outside influence and giving the aid givers rather than the junta credit for a recovery.
However, keeping out international aid would focus blame squarely on the military should it fail to restore people’s livelihoods.
The most extreme change could come within the military itself.
The cyclone's aftermath, said Turnell, "may also just present an opportunity for more moderate, rational people in the military to assume greater control."
If the relief effort discredits the current leadership, said Josef Silverstein, a Burma expert formerly with Rutgers University, younger officers could take the opportunity to make a bid for power.
"With the devastating sudden impact of natural disasters, there tends to be a huge anger from the public for the inadequacies of the state to respond to the needs of disaster- affected people," said Dr. Alpaslan Ozerdem of the Post-war Reconstruction and Development Unit of the University of York.
"Consequently, the image of the state as a paternal figure—a heavy-handed protector—collapses spectacularly," he said.
