A solution to the unrest in Burma might lie in talks with the main activists groups, the 88 Generation Student group or the UN, but for now no resolution is in sight, say Thai scholars who have followed events in Burma closely.
Bloodshed should be avoided at all cost, they say.
Sunai Pasuk, a Thailand representative with Human Rights Watch, told The Irrawaddy on Thursday that the current Burmese demonstrations are the most effective people's power movement in 10 years.
However, democracy will probably remain elusive, he said, because the regime can easily eliminate the opposition groups and key leaders through violence or imprisonment.
“The international community has condemned the junta's response to the protest, but the UN reaction has been disappointing, particularly from Ibrahim Gambari, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative on Burma who still lacks an understanding of the Burma situation,” Sunai said.
Sunai said Gambari should stop saying Burma is on the right track to democracy because it has made no progress toward national reconciliation or democracy.
Pornpimon Trichot, a scholar with the Asian Studies Institute at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, said the military government may have more restraint than in 1988 because the international community has focused more on Burma, plus Burma's economy relies more on international contracts.
Pornpimon said the 88 Generation group could be a way for the government to negotiate its way out of the dangerous situation that's underway.
"The type of bloodshed that happened in 88 should not be allowed to happen again," Pornpimon said.
Both Sunai and Pornpimon said the Thai government has monitored the situation in Burma closely but quietly, because of concern over the impact of refugees fleeing to the Thai border and bilateral relations.
Sunai said Asean countries also are monitoring events because instability in Burma will spill over into the region. Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia are major investors in energy and other businesses in Burma, he noted.
Pornpomon said trading and investments with Burma mainly involve natural resources that should not be affected by disruptions in the cities where demonstrations are occurring.
There has been no official response from Asean, which has been criticized by Western countries for not taking a more hard line approach for democratization in Burma.
Burma was admitted as a member Asean in 1997.
Bloodshed should be avoided at all cost, they say.
Sunai Pasuk, a Thailand representative with Human Rights Watch, told The Irrawaddy on Thursday that the current Burmese demonstrations are the most effective people's power movement in 10 years.
However, democracy will probably remain elusive, he said, because the regime can easily eliminate the opposition groups and key leaders through violence or imprisonment.
“The international community has condemned the junta's response to the protest, but the UN reaction has been disappointing, particularly from Ibrahim Gambari, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative on Burma who still lacks an understanding of the Burma situation,” Sunai said.
Sunai said Gambari should stop saying Burma is on the right track to democracy because it has made no progress toward national reconciliation or democracy.
Pornpimon Trichot, a scholar with the Asian Studies Institute at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, said the military government may have more restraint than in 1988 because the international community has focused more on Burma, plus Burma's economy relies more on international contracts.
Pornpimon said the 88 Generation group could be a way for the government to negotiate its way out of the dangerous situation that's underway.
"The type of bloodshed that happened in 88 should not be allowed to happen again," Pornpimon said.
Both Sunai and Pornpimon said the Thai government has monitored the situation in Burma closely but quietly, because of concern over the impact of refugees fleeing to the Thai border and bilateral relations.
Sunai said Asean countries also are monitoring events because instability in Burma will spill over into the region. Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia are major investors in energy and other businesses in Burma, he noted.
Pornpomon said trading and investments with Burma mainly involve natural resources that should not be affected by disruptions in the cities where demonstrations are occurring.
There has been no official response from Asean, which has been criticized by Western countries for not taking a more hard line approach for democratization in Burma.
Burma was admitted as a member Asean in 1997.
