A decision by Burma's military regime to allow Buddhist monks to march passed the home of detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi should not be seen as a sign the junta is preparing to release its iron grip on power, analysts warned Sunday.
The military—struggling to deal with the most-sustained wave of anti-government protests in two decades—could still launch a bloody crackdown as it has in the past, an analyst and UN official warned.
On Sunday, the junta beefed up security on both ends of the road leading to Suu Kyi's house, witnesses said, in what appeared to be an effort to prevent a repeat of Saturday's march. About 20 pro-junta thugs and a dozen riot police were posted on the street, the witnesses said.
Monks have been marching for the past five days in Burma's biggest city and around the country as a month of protests against economic hardship under the junta have ballooned into the biggest grass-roots challenge to its rule since pro-democracy protests in 1988.
By linking their cause to Suu Kyi's activism, which has seen her detained for about 12 of the last 18 years, the monks increased the pressure on the junta to decide whether to crack down or to compromise with the demonstrators.
"This was a very important gesture," said David Steinberg, a Burma expert at Georgetown University in Washington who is monitoring events from Singapore. "It's significant because the military allowed them to pass (Suu Kyi's house). That and other images indicate the military is not prepared unless things get worse to directly confront the monks in their uniforms."
Steinberg said this was in contrast to 1990 when the military put down a protest by hundreds of monks in Mandalay, arresting and defrocking some and closing monasteries linked with the demonstration.
So far, the government has been handling the monks' disciplined but defiant protests gingerly, aware that forcibly breaking them up in predominantly Buddhist Burma would likely cause public outrage.
But Steinberg said the military's lack of force should not be seen as a sign of weakness, given it remains the largest and most powerful institution in the country.
"Any change (in the government) will have to be approved by elements of the military if there is to be change," he said. "They are far too powerful to be resisted if the military acts in unison."
A UN official agreed, saying that while dissident groups he had met in Bangkok this week were optimistic about the outcome, they failed to take into account the military's history of brutally suppressing uprisings in 1988, 1990 and 1996.
"They were very optimistic and expectant and seemed to believe that there was one outcome possible which was popular uprising that brings Suu Kyi to the forefront," said the official, who requested anonymity citing protocol. "I'm not as confident that is the only outcome possible. I would think massive repression and violence on a significant scale is not to be discounted."
The monks on Saturday stopped briefly in front of Suu Kyi's house and said prayers before leaving at the other end of the street, said witnesses, who asked not to be named for fear of being harassed by the authorities.
Suu Kyi, 62, is the leader of the National League for Democracy party, which won a 1990 general election but was not allowed to take power by the military. She has been under detention continuously since May 2003.
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| Suu Kyi paying respects to monks at her home |
On Sunday, the junta beefed up security on both ends of the road leading to Suu Kyi's house, witnesses said, in what appeared to be an effort to prevent a repeat of Saturday's march. About 20 pro-junta thugs and a dozen riot police were posted on the street, the witnesses said.
Monks have been marching for the past five days in Burma's biggest city and around the country as a month of protests against economic hardship under the junta have ballooned into the biggest grass-roots challenge to its rule since pro-democracy protests in 1988.
By linking their cause to Suu Kyi's activism, which has seen her detained for about 12 of the last 18 years, the monks increased the pressure on the junta to decide whether to crack down or to compromise with the demonstrators.
"This was a very important gesture," said David Steinberg, a Burma expert at Georgetown University in Washington who is monitoring events from Singapore. "It's significant because the military allowed them to pass (Suu Kyi's house). That and other images indicate the military is not prepared unless things get worse to directly confront the monks in their uniforms."
Steinberg said this was in contrast to 1990 when the military put down a protest by hundreds of monks in Mandalay, arresting and defrocking some and closing monasteries linked with the demonstration.
So far, the government has been handling the monks' disciplined but defiant protests gingerly, aware that forcibly breaking them up in predominantly Buddhist Burma would likely cause public outrage.
But Steinberg said the military's lack of force should not be seen as a sign of weakness, given it remains the largest and most powerful institution in the country.
"Any change (in the government) will have to be approved by elements of the military if there is to be change," he said. "They are far too powerful to be resisted if the military acts in unison."
A UN official agreed, saying that while dissident groups he had met in Bangkok this week were optimistic about the outcome, they failed to take into account the military's history of brutally suppressing uprisings in 1988, 1990 and 1996.
"They were very optimistic and expectant and seemed to believe that there was one outcome possible which was popular uprising that brings Suu Kyi to the forefront," said the official, who requested anonymity citing protocol. "I'm not as confident that is the only outcome possible. I would think massive repression and violence on a significant scale is not to be discounted."
The monks on Saturday stopped briefly in front of Suu Kyi's house and said prayers before leaving at the other end of the street, said witnesses, who asked not to be named for fear of being harassed by the authorities.
Suu Kyi, 62, is the leader of the National League for Democracy party, which won a 1990 general election but was not allowed to take power by the military. She has been under detention continuously since May 2003.
